I want to start by talking about Coronavirus. Don’t switch off! I know you’re sick of hearing about it. But there is a useful point which I’ll come on to. 

As I write this, there is still massive uncertainty about where the Coronavirus outbreak is going to take us. The greatest minds on the planet,  people who have made a life’s work of studying precisely this kind of virus – cannot come to a consensus on exactly how serious this is and how many people will ultimately succumb to the disease.

And the reason they can’t do that is quite simple – they are missing a key number without which no projections are possible.

We can see how many people are dying with the disease, (but not necessarily OF the disease – a seperate confounding issue which I’ll gloss over for our purpose here) and we have a figure for the number of cases. We also know the size of our population. So it should be simple shouldn’t it?

If there are a 65 million people in our UK population, a thousand cases and 50 deaths, then our mortality rate looks like 5% and we could lose over 3 million people if everyone got it.

But we know this isn’t right. Why? Well there are a few reasons but first and foremost is the key number I mentioned earlier. You see, we don’t actually know the number of cases. All we know is the number of serious cases presenting at hospital, added to randomly by various celebrities, footballers, royalty and rich folk who had the where with all to pay for their own test.

We know there are very many people with mild or zero symptoms infected with Coronavirus, but we don’t know how many. Without that number, any projections about the path and likely toll of the disease are worthless.

As I write this there have been 11,568 positive tests for Coronavirus in the UK and 578 deaths. But these tests weren’t taken randomly – most were taken on people already ill. A death rate of 5% looks terrifying. But what if that 11,568 is the tip on the iceberg, and it surely is? So how big is the iceberg? Without knowing we can’t say whether 578 deaths is indeed terrifying, reassuringly low or somewhere between the two.

To take this to an admittedly extreme example, if 20% of the UK population was already infected (with most asymptomatic or with mild symptoms) then those 578 deaths would be spread over 13 million people, so a one in 22,000 chance of dying after being infected. Nobody is suggesting that is right, but 11,568 cases isn’t right either. The truth lay somewhere between the two figures. 

Knowing your numbers is critical in projecting what will happen with a virus, and it’s also critical in projecting what will happen in your business. Just as the number of deaths is meaningless in isolation in assessing the destructive capability of a virus, so the number of sales is meaningless in assessing the potential profitability of a business project.

You need to know exactly the same things as the statistician trying to understand where a virus is headed…what is the size of your target market (population) how many people have been exposed to your marketing (infections) and how many people have purchased (deaths). It’s only then that you can determine potential. How you do this will depend on what you’re selling and how you’re selling it, but it can usually be done. Testing is the key.

So if you’ve made a 1,000 sales that might sound good to you. But that figure means something very different if only 5,000 from your target market have seen your offer than if 100,000 have seen it. 

I see a lot of people focussing on sales figures without giving these figures real context. It’s only by adding context in terms of the level of exposure to what you’re offering, and the size of the overall market in relation to that exposure, that you can assess what the sales figures mean for long term potential.

To do otherwise would lead you down the path of rejecting potential fortune makers, and persevering with seemingly ‘hot prospects’ which have already eaten into most of their potential.

Let’s hope Covid-19 is a case of the latter. 

Today’s National Day  

NATIONAL STAY POSITIVE DAY!

PUBLISHERS NOTICE  

“No Gym, No Problem!”

Hello. 

 Now Gyms Have Been Closed Temporarily You Might Be Wondering…

 What To Do Instead?

Well if you’re anything like me, the answer isn’t ‘nothing’!

Over a decade ago now we were introduced to an  intriguing  and  unique home exercise programme. We decided to  publish  it  in  limited  numbers and it created something of a sensation, with many of our customers saying it’s the most effective thing they’ve ever tried…

And It Takes Just 7 Minutes A Day!

This isn’t just a ‘make do’ programme because your  gym is closed. It’s a programme which you can use  for life, no  matter where you are without special equipment, and achieve  spectacular  results.

You can find out all about it and hear from some of the people using  it  to transform their fitness and their appearance HERE.

These are difficult times, but it doesn’t mean we have to give in.

With this programme, I believe it’s possible for  you  to  come  out  of  this fitter and healthier than you went in.

Take a look  CLICK HERE and see what you think.  

www.streetwisenews.com/vince