I always smile when I see or hear people making predictions about the success of a person, product, or an idea.
The reason why I smile is that very few people actually predict correctly.
Some people like to think that they can predict an outcome, but truth be told, they have a lucky guess at best.
History is littered with industry ‘experts’ making predictions that were completely wrong.
The Beatles were one of, if not THE biggest band in history – and might still be considered so – and yet the A&R man at Decca records famously refused to sign them, stating that they were an ‘old sound’ and would not go far.
Let’s not forget JK Rowling, James Patterson and Stephen King.
All three of the world’s wealthiest and most popular bestselling authors had their work turned down by ‘industry experts’ who believed that their work would not sell.
Harry Potter was turned down about 12 times before someone decided to take a ‘risk’ on it… now look at the franchise!
Those experts who worked inside the publishing industry made predictions that were completely off the mark.
Anyone who predicts a person or an idea as a failure that eventually comes true, may not just have been lucky with their guess, they may have caused the failure to happen by voicing it loudly resulting in people changing their behaviour towards it, stunting its potential.
It’s very easy to make a negative prediction and destroy a person’s vision harming its potential success.
Yes, you can have an informed guess based on the success of something similar that preceded it, but even then, that is more often-than-not, wrong.
Before Harry Potter was published, there had been other books which followed a boy who was a wizard and went to a wizard school.
Harry Potter caught the public’s imagination better than the other books.
Maybe the writing was better; perhaps the storylines were more gripping and gritty.
Maybe it was written for an older audience – adults enjoyed reading the HP books too – or maybe the books were published at ‘the right time’, or perhaps more money was invested into running a bigger and better marketing campaign.
There are so many variables to consider that make comparisons between two similar ideas useless.
Another great example of ‘experts’ making a bad prediction happened way back in 2006 when the comedy film, Idiocracy, starring Luke Wilson, was filmed.
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Idiocracy is set in a dystopian future where the dumbing-down of American society has lead to the evolution of a nation where everyone is completely stupid.
Luke Wilson plays Corporal Joe Bauers, a decisively average American who is selected as a guinea pig for a top-secret hibernation program but is forgotten.
He awakes years later to a future so incredibly moronic he is recognised as the most intelligent person alive.
The film wasn’t a big budget movie and so the costume designer did not have a lot of money to spend on creating outfits for the characters.
She needed to put the characters in shoes that looked futuristic and also ridiculously stupid.
She chose a new ugly rubber clog-like shoe created by a start-up company that was not yet readily available to the public.
The shoe really looked the part; it was different to what people were wearing at the time making it look ‘futuristic’ and it looked like the kind of shoe only morons would choose to wear. (I actually agree as they are the ugliest shoes around!)
The film producer, Mike Judge, not wanting to be sued or get into any trouble with the manufacturers asked the costume designer, ‘what if these are really popular by the time the film comes out, and everyone is wearing them?’
The costume designer replied with something along the lines of ‘are you kidding? Look at them; they are ridiculous. No one’s actually going to ever wear these shoes.’
Well, people do wear those shoes…. In fact, millions of people wear them.
Those shoes were Crocs.
I find it hard to believe that they are as popular as they are because they are ugly but I have been told that they are incredibly comfortable, and they are perfect for slipping on when doing jobs like working in the garden or going to the beach.
At least they offer more protection to your toes than flip-flops.
The costume designer for Idiocracy could be considered as an ‘expert’ in fashion and clothing, but it would seem that her prediction was so far off the mark… the makers of Crocs are laughing their Crocs off.
The company have sold over 720 million pairs of Crocs since launch and now sell on average 100 million pairs of shoes each year in 90 countries.
In 2022, the company purchased HeyDude adding sneakers into its profile taking total company sales to $3.6 billion!
That’s a lot of money for something that shouldn’t sell!
That’s the kind of failure I’d be happy to own.
What was predicted to be a shoe no one with half a brain would touch with a ten foot barge pole, has actually become a billion dollar best seller!
So what does that tell you?
It tells me that when an ‘industry expert’ makes a prediction about the success of an idea, item or person, it should be taken with a pinch of salt.
One person cannot predict what millions of other people will think and do, especially if that person already has a negative emotional response to the person, idea, or product they are trying to make a prediction about.
I don’t know how often the shoes are seen in the film, but it could be possible that people watching the film saw the Crocs, took a liking to them and decided to buy a pair.
When Ray Ban sunglasses were used in the film Top Gun, sales of their sunglasses increased by 30% around the time the film was being shown in cinemas.
It is possible that the costume designer had actually put Crocs on the road to success by choosing to use them in the film.
The company may have also shared the fact that their shoes had been chosen to be exclusively used in a Hollywood film. That is powerful free advertising right there.
Ok, so the point of this is that you really cannot predict how well something will be without testing it.
So if you have an idea that you think could be profitable, try it and see.
If someone tells you that your idea won’t be a success, ignore them and test it. Without trying, you will never know whether it could have been a success.
All ideas will fail if you do not try and test them out.
Trying to predict what happens is dangerous, the best thing you can do is to sit back and ‘observe’.
Success often comes from watching what unfolds in front of you and then taking the appropriate action… just as David Houghton does.
He spends no more than ten minutes observing the movement of one financial market. If there is the right movement, he sets up a trade and then goes about his day.
The system he uses makes him between £110 and £350 most weekdays.
If you would like to know more about David and his ten minute morning system, click the link below:
The A Minus B System
Kind regards
John Harrison
PS… As far as effort is concerned, this is one of the easiest systems for making money that I’ve seen.
You don’t need to know a lot and you only need to work ten minutes in the morning and for that it will give you between £110 and £350 most weekdays.
Here’s that link again: